Horemheb's Musings

Three years since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War and we are seeing an immense Russian victory and the collapse of NATO. The new Trump administration is continuing its previous strategy of accommodation of Russia. What we are seeing is a strategic redefinition of conservative foreign politics across the globe.

In short: Neo Con conservativism and hubris is being replaced by colonial racial identity politics as US, Europe and Russia are moving into a Caucasian alliance to counter China

The era since the end of Cold War and the collapse of Soviet Union was defined by the concept of Neo-Cons ( neo- conservatives). This was defined by a unipolar world with American absolutism. It was an era of absolute humiliation by US ad NATO of their vanquished former enemies – Russia. The NATO expansion towards Russia, nuclear non-proliferation agenda including the nuclear disarmament of former Soviet states were all predicated on the notion of an unchallengeable US hegemony and an inviolable US Security umbrella. US was so big and powerful that none could even dream of speaking against it. The hubris was reinforced by Operation Desert Storm against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1991. What chance did an Iraq weakened by a decade long war against Iran have against a NATO army that was training to fight Red Army for decades?

The neo con hubris was further exhibited in the Balkan War. It was yet another opportunity to humiliate Russia in its own backyard. The disastrous First Chechen War (1994-96) also played into the narrative of a destroyed Russia. So when Vladimir Putin as a newly elected President of the Russian Federation complained of eastward expansion of NATO and even requested to join NATO they were rejected and ridiculed. The neo con hubris had permeated all levels of Western polity. US and NATO started cutting down on defence. After all what enemy would dare stand against them? Thus it was that a US military defeat by Somalian militia in Mogadishu (1993) was written off as an aberration and not as a sign of things to come. US and NATO had been geared to fight only nation states against whom they had overwhelming superiority and thus had no capability against non-state actors. US had not learnt from Vietnam War either.

The biggest shock to the neocon supremacy happened on September 11, 2001. How could a terror group based out of caves in Afghanistan conduct the first attack on continental United States in two centuries? What neither Germany nor Japan nor Soviet Union could do was accomplished by these non-state actors. US and NATO responded with fury, captured Afghanistan and sent Taliban into hiding.

Why US attacked Iraq and not Iran in 2003 I would never know. Iran had been an enemy of US since 1979, was consistently causing American deaths (Beirut Bombing 1983) was sponsoring terrorists for decades and thus had legitimate casus belli against them. The only reason Iraq was invaded was because Iraq was weak and the neo cons wanted to show the world that they could do whatever they wanted to do with impunity. To hell with United Nations, to hell with “world order” and “rules based system”.

US hubris met their match and Afghanistan and Iraq proved to be Mogadishu magnified. During the twenty years of War on Terror more and more of conventional war fighting capabilities were eroded in a futile effort to win an attrition war against non-state actors. The erosion was particularly steep for European countries. Germany which had 3000 tanks in 1990 now has 300. UK which had 2000 tanks now have just 220, in fact UK has more horses in its army (550) than tanks. The largest European standing army in NATO is currently Turkey.

During these twenty years of War on Terror neo cons forgot about another existential enemy rising in the East – People’s Republic of China. US promoted relations with China since the 60’s to use as a counterweight against Soviet Union. During the 80’s, 90’s and 2000’s they financed the industrialization of China. The neo con hubris assumed that a prospering China would become “democratic”, besides a “humble and cooperative” China would never dare raise their voice against US! Americans had forgotten about Korean War too.

So imagine the US surprise in early 2010’s when China suddenly expands into South China Sea. China was not afraid of US anymore and US realized it no longer had military superiority in the Pacific theatre apart from being stretched thin in two wars. That was the end of the War on Terror and death knell was struck for the neo cons. From Bush Sr through Obama and by extension Biden every single US Presidency was neo con in its nature and policy if not in branding. Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama was after all responsible for the wars in North Africa and Biden shall forever be blamed for pushing Russia to launch a war against Ukraine. Donald Trump’s first Presidency was the indicator of a new foreign policy emerging. An exclusivist rather than absolutist America. An America that choses the right battles to fight rather than stretching itself thin.

I would in fact argue that it is the resumption of an older foreign policy that we are seeing today. A policy that lasted centuries until the start of the First World War.

Russia was never a natural enemy of Europe. Before the Russian revolution it was as much a European power as France or Germany. It was the communist revolution and the fear of communism that caused Soviet Union and later Russia to be hated and feared by Europeans and Americans. Russia of 2025 is more similar and less alien to NATO than any time in the past century. If UK, France and Germany – enemies for centuries – can be allies I see no reason why a Russo-NATO alliance can’t be formed in a few years if not months. The recent statements of Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron certainly indicate towards that direction. In the longer perspective the 20^th century would be seen an aberration in the centuries where Russia was just another colonial European nation. 

Let’s also not forget Trump’s principal motivation – to prevent a Third World War. I am sure the real players of realpolitik are well aware of who is the true enemy of the West.

While neither Napoleon nor Hitler could defeat Russia, Genghis Khan did. The Huns and Mongols have inflicted generational trauma on Europeans for millennia so can they not be forgiven of being fearful of its newest successor – People’s Republic of China?

The true enemy of US hegemony is China. The true enemy of Russia in its sphere of influence is also China. China has long sought to erode and undermine Russian influence in Central Asia. Russians are also unlikely to forget the Ussuri River conflict of 1969. All this is underscored by the long dormant Clash of Civilizations racial hatred given a new lease of life as a result of the anti-woke backlash against immigration across Europe and US. When faced with a Han Chinese adversary the Caucasian nations of North America and Europe are bound to be allies.

Rebuild bridges with Russia and thus isolate China. It must be in view of this long game that India also played it straight the past three years of the war.

In the short term Ukraine will be humiliated. It is unjust but that itself is not rare. The list of peoples and nations who have suffered injustice, ignominy and destruction in the great power games is long. The world is not fair, everyone plays to their own advantages and some people are left trampled and destroyed. There is no rule that says justice should prevail.